Posts

The DUP and Rainbow Coalitions

There's a lot of talk about whether Labour could form a Rainbow coalition in the event the Conservative-DUP confidence and supply system breaks down. My answer is no. There's also speculation about a future general election coming soon and questions as to how Labour might get into government. In the short term that also looks unlikely. Let's review why. The cost of Coalition/Supply & Demand Put simply, there comes a point where the political cost of a coalition or supply & demand relationship outweighs the number of MPs in the junior partner. To understand this, it's vital to remember that the Conservatives aren't one unified party. In practice you have lots of sub-groups like the 1922 Committee, you have ardently anti-Brexit MPs like Anna Soubry and Nicky Morgan. Then you have pro-Brexit MPs like Michael Gove. You have traditionalists like Jacob Rees-Mogg. In short the Conservative party is, like every party, a group of people with differen